Elections to the Welsh and Scottish parliaments were held in May. The results confirmed the polls, with a clear victory for the Welsh and Scottish nationalist parties. In contrast to England, where Nigel Farage’s far-right REFORM UK party won the local elections, in Wales and Scotland the pro-independence parties (PLAID CYMRU and the SNP, respectively) received the most votes. The political and social divide between these two Celtic nations and England is becoming increasingly evident.
For the first time, the independence movement has emerged victorious in Wales
In Wales, the victory of the historic nationalist party Plaid Cymru has shaken up the political landscape. Over the past 25 years, Welsh nationalism’s representation in the Cardiff parliament has ranged between 20% and 25%. Now, it has risen to 45%. Historically, the Labour Party has been the dominant political force in Wales, leading the Welsh government for more than a century. This time, however, it fell to third place. The nationalists won 43 seats in the 96-seat parliament, achieving their best result ever. Their victory, however, came as no surprise, as all polls predicted that the Welsh pro-independence movement was gaining momentum. NAZIOGINTZA also published an article a few months ago highlighting this trend (https://www.naziogintza.eus/en/nazio-bidelagunak/emerging-pro-independence-movements-in-europe/).
What lies behind the resurgence of Welsh nationalism? There is no single explanation; rather, this revival has multiple causes:
1.- First, Plaid Cymru has made a clear commitment to independence in recent years. It has embraced independence without reservation and made that position unmistakably clear. This, in turn, contributed to the emergence in 2014 of the grassroots pro-independence movement YesCymru (https://www.naziogintza.eus/en/nazio-bidelagunak/wales-the-independentism-on-the-march/), which has organised large demonstrations in recent years and helped place independence firmly on the political agenda. To gain visibility, nationalist parties must be willing to place independence at the centre of their political programme.
2.- The success of the Scottish pro-independence movement in recent years has also spread to Wales. In addition, the discontent generated by Brexit among a large section of Welsh society, as in Scotland, has widened the political divide with England.
3.- The crisis affecting British political parties, particularly the Labour Party. Many Welsh voters have sought to punish the Labour Party in particular, and the beneficiary of this backlash has been the progressive Welsh nationalist movement (just as the far right has been in England).
4.- The generational shift: The nationalist movement has resonated strongly with younger generations. Young people have little emotional attachment to British unionism, and support for independence is stronger among them than among older generations.
Nationalist Rhun ap Iorwerth is the new First Minister of Wales. The nationalists will govern as a minority administration for the next five years. Geraint Thomas, a member of YES CYMRU and the international representative of this popular movement, told NAZIOGINTZA that the issue of independence, however, will not be a priority during this term. The nationalists are in a parliamentary minority, and there is no clear pro-independence majority in society (polls indicate that 35% of citizens support independence). Therefore, two priorities have been identified for the next five years: first, demonstrating the ability to govern effectively as a pro-independence party, thereby laying a stronger foundation for a future referendum; and second, securing further devolution of powers to Wales, bringing its autonomy more into line with that of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
In Scotland, the SNP is the party with the most votes, but it has lost seats
For the fifth consecutive election—having achieved the same result in every election since 2007—the left-wing pro-independence SNP has won the Scottish parliamentary elections. The victory, however, is bittersweet as the party lost six seats compared to the previous election. It will hold 57 of the 129 parliamentary seats.
SNP leader John Swinney was appointed First Minister of Scotland on May 19. The new government is led by the SNP and will, for the time being, govern as a minority administration.
It should be noted that the pro-independence movement will continue to dominate the Scottish Parliament, as the Scottish Greens’ 15 seats must be added to the SNP’s 57. The Greens have consistently supported Scottish independence.
The new government wasted no time in taking steps on the constitutional question or the independence issue: on May 26, it introduced a parliamentary motion asking London to grant Scotland the authority to hold referendums. The motion passed thanks to the votes of the SNP and the Greens (72). This is no small matter, because Scotland currently lacks the authority to hold another referendum on independence.
The UK government quickly reaffirmed its opposition, insisting that Scotland does not have the power to organise a second referendum and that London will not grant permission for one.
Robin McAlpin, president of the Common Weal organization and an independence activist, told NAZIOGINTZA that in this year’s election campaign, the SNP has not placed independence at the center of its political platform. Instead, it has primarily used the threat posed by the far right to win votes.
Shortly after the election, however, a serious controversy further damaged the image of the Scottish pro-independence party: the former husband of ex-leader Nicola Sturgeon admitted to embezzling a large sum of money from the party. Although audits conducted several years ago had already uncovered accounting irregularities, the party failed to address the issue adequately, and the scandal has now come fully into public view. Unsurprisingly, the unionist parties have seized on the affair to intensify their criticism of the SNP.
It is important to note that Scotland’s independence movement has largely been centred around a single party, the SNP, which has been left deeply shaken by this unfortunate episode. Grassroots independence organisations developed in the SNP’s shadow and have lost momentum in recent years. First Minister John Swinney has repeatedly stated that he has a “Plan B” for independence, but he has never clarified what that plan entails. The SNP has consistently ruled out a unilateral route to sovereignty and instead prioritised reaching an agreement with London, although a small faction within the party disagrees with that approach.
As things stand, it does not appear likely that Scotland will achieve independence within the next five years. The SNP is no longer at the height of its political strength, London remains firmly opposed to a referendum, and the independence movement has rejected a unilateral strategy. As in Catalonia, the Scottish independence process appears to have reached a frustrating impasse. Nevertheless, independence movements often advance in unexpected ways. With a parliament still dominated by pro-independence forces, Scotland remains well positioned to seize any future political opportunity that could reopen the path towards independence.